Pro-NAFTA pressure seems to be swaying Trump, US experts say

  • Pro-NAFTA pressure seems to be swaying Trump, US experts say

Pro-NAFTA pressure seems to be swaying Trump, US experts say

"The reality is that the United States courts are not going to support any allegation made by Canada or Mexico, they are going to support the American businesses community", Dias said.

The most likely scenario of what will happen if negotiations to reset terms for the North American Free Trade Agreement are successful - or not - is that President Donald Trump announces, probably via Twitter, a USA withdrawal from the deal.

Among the issues the three NAFTA partners have been unable to agree on are proposed changes to the chapter on dispute settlement, the inclusion of a so-called "sunset clause" that would subject the deal to review every five years, and the automotive sector trade deficit. One that looks interesting to us at present is a CAD vs. RUB vol spread.

Mexico has made clear it will never pay for President Donald Trump's planned southern border wall, the country's economy minister said today, after the United States leader again insisted he would make Mexico pay for the barrier.

Indeed, senators from agricultural states have stepped up their outreach efforts to the White House in recent days, meeting with Trump in December and again last week to outline how farmers in their states rely on NAFTA.

The Trump administration began renegotiating the trilateral trade deal past year, and discussions are set to enter their sixth round this month. "That will be a major test of his presidency's impact on rural America going forward". Trump would like to see up to 85 per cent of all components in autos being sourced from within the NAFTA region, with 50 per cent of the content coming from the U.S.

Trump has long called the 1994 treaty a bad deal that hurts American workers. "We make a good deal on NAFTA, and, say, I'm going to take a small percentage of that money and it's going toward the wall". John Boozman (R-Arkansas) said. He also noted the USA business community is largely opposed to the Trump administration's stance on NAFTA.

But the clock is ticking for trade negotiators to reach a deal before political pressures posed by impending elections in Mexico and the United States poison the talks.

One of the sources, Raul Urteaga, the head of worldwide trade for the ministry of agriculture, said: "If Trump announces a U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA, well at that moment the negotiations stop". He does not believe Trump will actually pull out of NAFTA and chalks up the threat as Trump's aggressive negotiating style.

Officials from the three countries will meet for another round of negotiations in Montreal later this month.

"How do you negotiate with someone who is wanting to kill the deal?"

"You may not be able to put the NAFTA back into that box once it's open, and anti-trade momentum takes over..."