Study Shows We Have A 5% Chance of Dodging Global Warming

  • Study Shows We Have A 5% Chance of Dodging Global Warming

Study Shows We Have A 5% Chance of Dodging Global Warming

Their results, published in the Nature Climate Change, concluded that the projected warming by the end of the century is a median 3.2°C (5.8°F), with a 90 percent chance that the global temperature will increase by 2.0-4.9°C (3.6-8.8°F).

Climate modeling and observational data suggest the world is already on track to reach risky levels of warming by the end of the century, according to the two papers.

Although both studies anticipate a grim future in terms of global warming, they do not account for every factor. President Donald Trump announced in June that he was withdrawing the United States from the treaty.

"The IPCC was clear that these scenarios were not forecasts", Adrian Raftery, a professor of statistics and sociology at the University of Washington, said in a news release. "We're closer to the margin than we think", Raftery said in the statement.

The 2 degree mark was set by the 2016 Paris Agreement. And we have a 5 percent chance of achieving it apparently.

"We need to learn lessons from countries with particularly low carbon intensity, such as France, whose transport infrastructure has a very good carbon footprint", Raftery said in an interview with the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

"It is achievable, but only with major, sustained effort on all fronts over the next 80 years", he explained.

The second study analysed past emissions of greenhouse gases and the burning of fossil fuels to show that even if humans suddenly stopped burning fossil fuels now, Earth will continue to heat up about two more degrees by 2100.

If emissions continue at the current pace for another 15 years, there is a high chance it will lead to a 3 degrees Fahrenheit temperature rise, according to the study.

The 2 degree Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) threshold, first conceived by Yale economist William Nordhouse in 1977, is considered the point when the planet as we know it will no longer exist as rising seas, weather anomalies, strengthened hurricanes, fewer crops and extended droughts become the norm.

Another group of climate researchers found out that global warming started a lot of time ago due to human activities and the Earth has already warmed more than it was thought. "It shows that the 1.5 to 2 degrees targets will not be met without additional mitigation, and suggests that a focus on energy efficiency is the best way forward".

The team's analysis relies on observations of the climate system to calculate Earth's committed warming, compared with computer simulations.

Technological advances are expected to cut global carbon intensity by 90pc over the course of the century, with sharp declines in China and India - two newly voracious consumers of energy.

According to the University of Washington study, there is a 90pc likelihood that temperatures will rise between 2C and 4.9C by 2100.

Pincus authored the analysis of committed warming, along with Thorsten Mauritsen of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. "In contrast, our study tries to assess how much warming we should expect given realistic future trajectories of emissions".

"As climate change affects air pollutant concentrations, it can have a significant impact on health worldwide, adding to the millions of people who die from air pollution each year", said lead author Jason West, an associate professor at UNC-Chapel Hill.